How Power Reliability Shapes Climate Risk in the Dominican Republic

For communities facing hurricanes, tropical storms, flooding or other climate-related shocks, vulnerability does not begin and end with exposure to the hazard itself. A neighborhood may face the same storm as another community but experience very different consequences depending on household resources, geography, access to essential services and the reliability of the infrastructure on which those services depend.

That connection is the focus of a 2026 study published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. Researchers examined the Dominican Republic’s Cibao region and asked what happens when electricity reliability is added to an established measure of vulnerability to climate shocks. Their answer is important because an electricity outage can become more than a utility problem during an extreme-weather event: it can interfere with water systems, communications, health services, refrigeration and other functions needed both during the emergency and throughout the recovery period.

What the Study Investigated

The research, led by Ramón Emilio De-Jesús-Grullón with Rafael Omar Batista Jorge, Oscar Atahualpa López and Dartiza Nicodemo, builds on the Dominican Republic’s Climate Shock Vulnerability Index, or IVACC. The index estimates household vulnerability to hazards such as hurricanes, storms and floods using socioeconomic and geographic characteristics.

IVACC was developed with the participation of the United Nations Development Programme and the Dominican Republic’s Single Beneficiary System, known as SIUBEN. Its household-level design allows vulnerability to be examined at different geographic scales, including provinces, municipalities, neighborhoods and individual households.

The researchers argued that an important dimension was missing from that type of assessment: the reliability of the electricity network serving a community. Their study therefore created an expanded measure called IVACCe, or an energy-reliability-inclusive Climate Shock Vulnerability Assessment.

The central idea is straightforward. Two communities with similar socioeconomic exposure to a hurricane may not have the same capacity to cope with the event if one is served by a network that experiences frequent interruptions while the other receives more reliable electricity.

How Researchers Measured Electricity Reliability

The study used operational data supplied by EDENORTE, the electricity distribution company serving much of the northern Dominican Republic. The researchers worked with outage information from medium-voltage distribution feeders and aligned those records geographically with the areas represented in IVACC.

One of the principal reliability measures was the System Average Interruption Frequency Index, or SAIFI. In practical terms, SAIFI measures how frequently customers experience interruptions over a defined period. It does not by itself describe how long an interruption lasts, which is why the duration of outages is an important complementary consideration when assessing the consequences of electricity failures.

The researchers first used spatial statistical techniques to identify areas where climate vulnerability was geographically concentrated. They then examined outage patterns and reliability indicators within the relevant portion of EDENORTE’s network.

The methodology included Local Moran’s I and local G* statistics, tools used in spatial analysis to identify clusters and concentrations rather than treating every geographic unit as an isolated observation. This allowed the researchers to look for places where vulnerability and infrastructure conditions were geographically related.

To combine the social and energy dimensions without assigning an arbitrary percentage weight to one or the other, the study used Pareto ranking. The resulting IVACCe indicator was then compared with the traditional IVACC assessment to determine whether adding electricity reliability changed the picture of vulnerability.

The Study Area: The Cibao Region

The research focused on the Cibao region, a large and economically important area in northern Dominican Republic. Within the national IVACC dataset, the researchers identified 6,231 neighborhoods and rural settlements in the Cibao. After applying their data and infrastructure filters, the final analysis covered 4,829 units with the necessary IVACC and medium-voltage network information.

The filtering process matters because the researchers were not claiming that the new indicator represented every community in the country. Areas without the required medium-voltage distribution data were excluded, as were locations without the corresponding vulnerability information. The authors therefore present the Cibao analysis as a case study and a methodological demonstration rather than a complete national ranking.

That distinction is important for interpreting the results. The study demonstrates how energy reliability can be integrated into vulnerability analysis, but it does not establish that every Dominican community has the same pattern or level of risk.

Power Outages Increased Across the Study Period

The EDENORTE records analyzed by the researchers show a substantial increase in the number of recorded power interruptions between 2021 and 2024. The annual total rose from 56,970 interruptions in 2021 to 118,726 in 2024, an increase of approximately 108 percent.

Longer interruptions also became more numerous. Events lasting at least two hours increased from 4,985 in 2021 to 10,270 in 2024. Outages lasting at least eight hours rose from 160 to 1,001 over the same period, a much larger proportional increase.

The figures should not be interpreted as evidence that climate change alone caused the increase. The study identifies a relationship between outage patterns and periods of severe weather, but the electrical system also experiences interruptions from operational, maintenance, infrastructure and other causes. The authors specifically note the importance of distinguishing these factors rather than attributing the overall trend to climate alone.

Outages Were Concentrated During the Hurricane Season

The study found that interruptions were more prevalent from June through November, the period that overlaps with the Atlantic hurricane season. Researchers also observed a notable concentration of interruptions between approximately 11 a.m. and 1 p.m., a period associated with higher electricity demand.

That pattern illustrates why electricity reliability cannot be understood solely as a climate issue. Weather conditions can place additional stress on infrastructure, while periods of high demand can create a separate operational challenge. The two pressures can overlap.

The recorded causes also show why caution is necessary when interpreting the relationship between weather and outages. Across the analyzed period, a substantial share of events were classified under unknown or poorly specified causes, while other interruptions were associated with voltage losses, vegetation management, project works, interconnections and infrastructure activities.

The study therefore points to a second issue beyond physical infrastructure: the quality and accessibility of outage data. Better information about where, when and why interruptions occur would make it easier to distinguish climate-related failures from other causes and to target resilience investments more precisely.

Hurricane Fiona Shows How Climate and Electricity Risks Can Intersect

The clearest examples in the study come from days associated with major weather events. In 2022, the largest daily concentration of interruptions occurred during a three-day period associated with Hurricane Fiona, which affected the Dominican Republic in September.

The study recorded 1,818 interruptions on the peak day identified during the event. Some circuits also recorded prolonged cumulative outage durations, including circuits in Nagua, Samaná and Moca.

Hurricane Fiona provides useful external context for understanding why electricity infrastructure matters during a disaster. World Bank documentation on the Dominican Republic reported that Fiona’s winds and torrential rains in September 2022 led to evacuations and left hundreds of thousands of people without electricity.

These figures do not establish that every outage during Fiona was caused by the hurricane, nor does the research attempt to assign all recorded interruptions to climate hazards. Instead, the event illustrates the mechanism examined by the study: a climate shock can damage or disrupt infrastructure precisely when communities are most dependent on reliable electricity for emergency response and recovery.

Why Electricity Reliability Can Amplify Climate Vulnerability

The significance of the study becomes clearer when electricity is viewed as an enabling system rather than simply a household service.

Modern water systems often depend on electric pumps. Communications networks require electricity to operate equipment. Businesses need power to preserve inventories, process transactions and maintain basic operations. Health facilities depend on electricity for medical equipment, refrigeration and temperature control. Households may also rely on electrically powered devices that become particularly important during emergencies.

When an extreme-weather event interrupts electricity, those dependencies can create a chain reaction. A household already facing socioeconomic constraints may have fewer alternatives for storing food, obtaining water, charging communications devices or maintaining safe indoor conditions. A community with weaker infrastructure may also face greater difficulty restoring normal services.

This is the mechanism behind the study’s concept of compounded vulnerability. The research does not claim that unreliable electricity automatically causes greater poverty or that every outage produces a measurable health impact. Rather, it shows that infrastructure reliability is another dimension that can coincide with existing social and geographic vulnerabilities.

In that sense, resilience is partly about what happens after the initial shock. A hurricane may be the event that triggers the disruption, but the duration and reliability of electricity service can influence how quickly households and institutions regain normal functioning.

What the New Vulnerability Index Found

After incorporating energy reliability, the researchers classified the resulting IVACCe scores into five categories for easier interpretation. The regional average was 0.52, while 62.2 percent of the analyzed neighborhoods and rural settlements fell into the medium, high or very high categories.

The significance of these categories is not that a particular score predicts exactly what will happen during the next hurricane. Instead, the index is intended to reveal where different dimensions of vulnerability overlap and where resilience planning may deserve closer attention.

The researchers found that incorporating energy reliability produced a more nuanced geographic picture than the traditional IVACC alone. Areas with social vulnerability and less reliable electricity could emerge as higher-priority locations because the two conditions reinforce each other in the assessment.

The Dominican Republic Already Uses Climate Vulnerability Mapping

The study’s contribution is easier to understand in the context of existing Dominican disaster-risk planning. IVACC was designed to provide detailed information about household vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and institutions including the United Nations Development Programme, the World Food Programme, Civil Defense and government social-policy authorities have used the framework for planning and emergency-response purposes.

Adding electricity reliability does not replace that system. It extends it.

That distinction is important. Socioeconomic vulnerability can identify households or communities that may have fewer resources to cope with a disaster. Infrastructure reliability can identify another source of exposure. Combining them allows decision-makers to ask a more operational question: where do social vulnerability and infrastructure weakness occur together?

What the Findings Mean for Energy Planning

For policymakers, the study points toward a more targeted approach to climate adaptation. Instead of treating electricity resilience as a separate technical issue, utilities and disaster-management institutions can examine how network performance overlaps with communities that already face elevated climate vulnerability.

This could influence the prioritization of infrastructure upgrades, vegetation management, equipment replacement, network reinforcement and emergency restoration planning. The study does not prescribe a specific investment program, but its methodology provides a framework for identifying locations where such interventions may have greater resilience value.

The approach also supports closer coordination between energy institutions and social-protection systems. A community identified as socially vulnerable may require different preparedness measures if its electricity network is also prone to frequent or prolonged interruptions.

The World Bank has separately identified strengthening climate resilience as an important component of the Dominican Republic’s development agenda. Its country climate work emphasizes the country’s exposure to hurricanes, tropical storms, flooding and other hazards, while its electricity-sector programs have included objectives related to climate resilience, operational performance and more reliable energy services.

Electricity Losses Are Another Part of the Challenge

The study also places reliability within the broader condition of the Dominican electricity sector. Data from the Ministry of Energy and Mines show that the country’s electricity distribution companies recorded energy losses of 37.7 percent in 2024.

Energy losses are not the same thing as power interruptions. Losses refer to electricity that is generated or purchased but not successfully billed or delivered, including technical and non-technical losses. Outages, by contrast, describe interruptions in service. The two indicators should therefore not be treated as interchangeable.

They are nevertheless relevant to the broader question of system performance. A distribution system dealing with significant losses faces a different set of financial and operational pressures than a highly efficient network. Improving overall sector performance can therefore complement, but does not automatically guarantee, improvements in reliability during extreme weather.

The Ministry of Energy and Mines has also established targets related to reducing distribution losses and increasing the proportion of households receiving between 20 and 24 hours of electricity service. These are sector-performance objectives, not findings of the climate-vulnerability study itself.

Why the Study Does Not Prove That Climate Change Caused the Outages

This distinction is central to reading the research correctly.

The study identifies temporal and spatial patterns linking electricity reliability with climate vulnerability. It also shows that some of the largest outage peaks occurred during periods affected by hurricanes or strong winds. But that is different from demonstrating that climate change caused the overall increase in outages between 2021 and 2024.

The research is primarily a vulnerability-assessment study. Its principal contribution is methodological: it demonstrates that electricity reliability changes how vulnerability can be mapped and interpreted. It is not a causal econometric study designed to isolate the percentage of outages attributable to climate change.

That limitation does not make the findings less useful. It defines what they can legitimately tell us. The study shows why electricity reliability belongs in climate-resilience planning; it does not establish a simple climate-to-outage causal equation for the Dominican Republic.

Data Availability Remains a Major Limitation

One of the study’s broader findings concerns information itself. Detailed electricity-outage data are not widely available in many Latin American and Caribbean countries, limiting the ability of researchers and policymakers to combine infrastructure performance with social vulnerability at fine geographic scales.

The EDENORTE outage data used in this study were obtained through the utility’s distribution planning and network studies department and are subject to access restrictions. By contrast, the IVACC data used by the researchers are publicly accessible.

This difference matters because sophisticated vulnerability mapping depends on detailed, compatible datasets. If information about outages is incomplete, inconsistent or unavailable at the same geographic scale as social data, it becomes harder to identify the communities facing the greatest combined risk.

The authors therefore argue for improved data integration as part of the broader resilience agenda. More consistent information could support not only academic research but also infrastructure planning, emergency preparedness and post-disaster evaluation.

What a More Reliable Grid Could Change During a Climate Shock

The practical logic can be illustrated without assuming a particular real-world neighborhood. Imagine two communities exposed to the same tropical storm and with similar levels of socioeconomic vulnerability. If electricity remains available in one while the other experiences repeated or prolonged interruptions, their ability to respond may diverge quickly.

In the better-served community, residents may be able to maintain communications, refrigerate food and medicine, use water systems and continue basic economic activity. In the other, each additional hour without electricity can create another layer of disruption.

This is why reliability is especially important during recovery. A resilient electricity system does not prevent hurricanes, floods or extreme winds. Its value is that it can reduce the extent to which a hazard becomes a prolonged disruption of other essential systems.

The study’s broader message is therefore about interdependence. Electricity is connected to many of the services that determine whether a community can absorb a shock and recover from it. Weakness in one infrastructure system can magnify problems elsewhere.

What the Findings Mean for the Dominican Republic

For the Dominican Republic, the research suggests that climate adaptation should not be planned solely around hazard maps or socioeconomic indicators. Those tools remain important, but they can miss an additional layer of risk created by the performance of critical infrastructure.

The Cibao case demonstrates one way to close that gap. By combining household vulnerability information with electricity-network data, planners can identify places where climate exposure, social fragility and infrastructure reliability intersect.

The approach could potentially be expanded beyond the study area if comparable data become available. The authors explicitly identify data accessibility as one of the principal challenges to wider application. Expanding the methodology nationally would therefore require more consistent access to detailed reliability information across distribution networks.

For the Dominican Republic, that is more than a technical data-management issue. It affects how limited resilience resources can be directed. A map that identifies only where people are vulnerable tells policymakers one part of the story. A map that also shows where critical infrastructure is least reliable can help indicate where the consequences of a future shock may be compounded.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is electricity reliability?

Electricity reliability describes how consistently an electrical system provides service without interruptions. Researchers commonly evaluate it using measures such as interruption frequency and interruption duration. In the Dominican Republic study, SAIFI was used as a principal measure of interruption frequency.

What is IVACC?

IVACC is the Dominican Republic’s Climate Shock Vulnerability Index. It assesses the probability that households will be vulnerable to hazards such as hurricanes, storms and floods using socioeconomic and geographic characteristics.

What is IVACCe?

IVACCe is the expanded vulnerability assessment developed in the study. It combines the existing climate-shock vulnerability framework with electricity-reliability information to identify locations where social and infrastructure vulnerabilities overlap.

Did the study prove that climate change caused more power outages?

No. The research identified outage patterns that coincide with severe weather and found that electricity reliability is relevant to climate vulnerability. It did not establish that climate change was the sole or direct cause of the increase in recorded outages between 2021 and 2024.

Why did researchers focus on EDENORTE?

EDENORTE provided the operational outage data needed for the case study. The research therefore focuses on the portion of the Cibao region covered by the available medium-voltage network and compatible vulnerability data rather than presenting the results as a complete national assessment.

Why does electricity matter during hurricanes?

Electricity supports many systems that become especially important during and after extreme weather, including communications, water pumping, refrigeration, health services and emergency operations. When electricity is interrupted, problems in those dependent systems can compound the original effects of the hazard.

Can the IVACCe method be applied across the entire Dominican Republic?

Potentially, but the study does not establish a completed national application. Wider use would require compatible, detailed electricity-reliability data from additional distribution networks and appropriate alignment with vulnerability information.

The Larger Lesson for Climate Resilience

The most important finding is not simply that outages occur during bad weather. That relationship is intuitive. The deeper contribution is showing that electricity reliability can change the way climate vulnerability is measured geographically.

For the Dominican Republic, where hurricanes, tropical storms and flooding can affect infrastructure and communities, resilience depends on more than reducing exposure to hazards. It also depends on whether essential systems can continue operating when those hazards occur and how quickly they can recover afterward.

The 2026 study offers a practical framework for making that relationship visible. Its analysis of the Cibao region does not provide a universal prediction of future disasters, and it does not establish a simple causal link between climate change and power outages. What it does demonstrate is that a community’s ability to withstand a climate shock can be assessed more fully when the reliability of the electricity network is considered alongside social and geographic vulnerability.

That shift in perspective matters for a country planning for a more climate-resilient future. The question is no longer only where a hurricane, flood or storm may strike. It is also which communities have the social resources and infrastructure reliability needed to withstand the disruption—and which may face several vulnerabilities at the same time.